Olga Sorokina

Currently any idle chap around is spending  his time  in  hot and furious  discussing   the World-markets   crisis.  This very crisis   affects the strongest way   the countries with  well-developed market economy, the so called “Golden Billion”, countries that form the dominating majority of the globalised World economy. Simultaneously series of serious crises, such as hunger, epidemics, wars and so on, occur  in other countries but all of them are  more or less connected with “Maltuzian crisis” - overuse of the population ecotope  resources. There's connection between World Market Crisis and increase in the violence level in countries which aren't strongly integrated into world market economy. But this connection is not as direct as it seems from first glance   The increased  population density automatically switch on the natural mechanisms of  its number autoregulation. All of them, and especially the  military conflicts, cause mass  population extermination. As a result a result population density falls, and that let the biotope capacity  to be restored. So it happens with the “usual” biological species, it is the natural way of it. The biological mechanism does not pay attention to any unique person, they operate with  “biomasses”. So it works and any emotions here are senseless.

However, the humanity  history is a history of opposition of the unique person to the  crowds, “biomass”, “the herd", - so it may be regarded as the history  of the mind Individualization. In  the countries, wich are less economically developed, the individualization  is hampered  due to the  economical means,  being alone the person cannot just survive, thus it is nothing outside  a community – therefore people are forced  to follow the  interests of a community and hace they fallow some strict inter communal rules of the behaviour.

In the developed countries this person-community liaison and hence the  necessity in  unified behaviour  rules were lost long ago. Together with this a new, quite unnatural form of the social  organisation behaviour was worked out – the democracy.  It  can be met nowhere in the biology – the biology pays no attention to the individuals, thus the natural sustainable form of the population is autocracy.  

But human being is something more than just one of the biosphere species. The democracy that occurs  in its population for the first time in order to replace the lost  pressure of natural selection on the social level.  But H.sapiens – a species wich is not usual, it is a social species, therefore  it is  subdue to the  biological lows influence. Democracy occurrence became possible as a result of this "individualization".  She  make possible the mobile society structure adjusting to the  changed conditions NOT through mass society determination or the private will of one person – let it be  some GENIOUS;  that genius may get ill,insane or just die and being a human being it may be just wrong after all, -  but this adjusting  is possible through the coordination of the several points of view  that  provides “the  3D vision”.Thus despite its  highly  unnatural   nature the democracy is the only way of providing human society  with the sustainable long term existing. By  not the less natural reasons the human society always tends  falling  into the natural state of authoritativeness.

In the countries, whose structure has been the  result of a long history of democracy development the   market economy has been developed. It's is able   to meet better the raising  modern needs of a human society . However  the marketing technologies development   made people falling into the autocracy of other type – the autocracy of marketing  forming technologies. It happens just due to the market ideology. For  after all    the market  is aimed to  the most mass consumers,   thus the higher the  product consumers quantity is  – the  better. That makes  the commercial revenue  higher. The mass consumers are  never characterised with some  outstanding properties – that is the reason these properties are called  "outstanding".  Hence the market is aimed to the  "maximum"  statistic distribution curve. There is the statistical law, that shows that if the eliminating  selection factors  are absent, the maximum of that curve shifts toward the more frequent feature.  That is why the market aimed to the mass consumer needs meeting and simultaneously using the surviving of the less intellectually developed individuals causes  the decrease of the general intellectual development of a society. It  proves  by the Flynn's Effect  that shows that in the developed countries the “general IQ” level was significantly raising up to  approximately 70 s,  but tuned backward later.   At the same time the individualisation level, regarded as  just some kind of asocial behaviour  on the contrary increases. In combination  with the Flynn's Effect and laws of marketing it  led to  of a mass postmodernism arising (in its mass  pop-forms; talents and unique persons occur always and  everywhere ) and its flourishing in the  pop cultures.

In Third World countries those eliminating  conditions still valid, but together with them other negative factors  have significant influence on mind and free will   development.

Despite that on the 20th century  it was considered  that Malthus theory was mistaken - after all till now we all are still existing. In fact he had just  underestimated  the influence  of the scientific and technical development – but there is no wonder, in the beginning of  the 19^th century it played almost no role at all. But since those times both  the seed and the influence of it have been  constantly increasing.  In the developed countries it has almost removed a problem of decreasing  soil fertility-thus the starving problem. Therefore  the limit, set by him to the in 20th years of the 20th  century had already been  passed  over – that is true,  tough almost at this period of time,  with that bit of difference,  that may be neglected on the historical level,  two  World Wars happened. The Market  generated scientific and technical revolution. By this  effect   the problem of  the biotope resources  exhaustion was  "shifted"  from them to the developed countries, ie   the developed countries the  Malthus theory effects to a lesser degree.  

However the  theory still affects  the  most   of  developing countries – if not all of them. It leads to the increase of  mass violence level in the world. Besides, people with less developed mind easily fell into a crowd, the herd, and consequently, into the  natural for all the biological species herd structure – the autocracy. Currently the Word broken  by the strict rapture, edge   between the autocratic  and the democratic branches of development. The main  part of conflicts  occurring  now  in the world happen between authoritative and democratic control systems of a society. The human density increase  has positive influence on the interspecies struggle for life. It increases as well.  Thus the competition of those two main evolutionary branches increase as well. Under present conditions the large-scale conflict may  result either  in the total biotope destruction, or – in  the best case – to huge losses and human being  rejection  many steps backward, to the primitive  animal  existing, -   hence the purpose of the developed countries it to prevent its  effect

And it is possible only through   removing of  the  developing countries from under  the influence of   Malthus   laws through scientific and technical progress – as it's presented in the article of    one of the world’s leading and most imaginative growth theorists Oded Galor, the Professor of Economics, Brown University
Fellow, Department of Economics, Hebrew University
  http://www.econ.brown.edu/fac/Oded_Galor/Galor%20interview.pdf  together with  moving  people from the state of  the  crowd, the biomass, one that is the subject of of biological laws influence.  And it is possible only only with development of abilities to think independently – individually – and this  is possible only through development of juvenile education system. However here there would be another trap – the trap of absolutely asocial anarchy, while the  every moment desire gets out from the reason control. It is not less fatal.

It should go together  with   the developed countries  transition to new, modern, method of the decision of conflicts – non-militaristic win-win  strategy. And in this situation the role of the countries-leaders of the civilised world, "the countries of the oldest democracy", England and, especially, the USA  can be hardly underestimated.  Would their leaders be able to realise it and to take this responsibility on?   One of the difficulties is that all their enemies and  ideological opponents stand at that stage of development  that offer just  military way of such conflicts  solving. Hence they should protect them self and their citizens.  The obsolete ideology paradigm  says “the attacking is the best way of defence”. It results into  "the war for democracy, the war against terrorism" that sounds like some oxymoron. 

However,  currently there is another trap that occurs due to the  market development.  In Sante Fe there is an institute that deals with interdisciplinary projects  and the complexity theory – quite a new discipline. One of its  experts, one of authors of the structurally-demographic theory professor Peter Turchin http://www.eeb.uconn.edu/people/turchin/  ,  a mathematician, but a professor of the
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology as well,    says that   after the education level got  measure of a person market success   it brought to the huge crowd of excess educated people occurring and that provoke instability of the society. In human history that usually results in revolutions.   However the occurring of  educated people that are to operate in the market conditions and live under its laws does not develop people ability to individual decisions and  to the actions that go against laws of this market.  Currently it results in the" mass post-modernism” blossoming. Its present mass-blossoming  is also connected with  combined  marketing-Flynn-effect. It began  as the  significant cultural phenomenon. However the prominent creators are always rare, unique – it would not fit the market ideology  Now  this cultural method has strongly entered into  market pop culture  – that is generated by the dulling market conditions

In the same article http://www.expert.ru/printissues/expert/2008/42/interview_nakanune_velikoy_revolutsii/ Peter Turchin says that when there is “the   educated elite overproduction” -  and in the case being discussed the people with higher education are that “elite”. The history has already  proved  it many times -  this situation  causes the  society  crisis which is usually  results in revolution. It happens due to the new occurring elite representatives get not incorporated into the obsolete society structures. The theory, developed in   this institute, predict the USA considerable growth of social tension  in the coming 20 years. However the countries, whose economy is based on market  adoption of the innovative technologies would be able to incorporate  some of them. Moreover the very existing of those countries without the  technological advances is hardly possible.

And what exit from this situation is? -neither Heavens, nor    Paradise for any one on our the sinned Earth could be built, but  it may help help to overcome the current crisis.  After all the very scientific and-technical progress  would allows the further development – but this progress can't go on without independent well-developed minds. For it's that only renewable resource that would be the key to. 

That “educated elite overproduction effect” would cause the social tension growth inside the USA, but being combined with anti-Anerican moods in the outside countries it may get fatal to the country. The proposed measures -  the world-wide “federal type” juvenile education system together with applying win win strategy  may relief the negative effect of the “shifting” of Malthus effect to the less developed countries.   

Recently   the Prof. William E. Halal http://home.gwu.edu/~halal/index.htm  from the Department of Management Science,The George Washington University  had  published in the “Washington profile newspaper an article Science Futurism http://www.washprofile.org/en/node/7909 in Russian that proves that the humanity future is not that dark at all. That the humanity is just pasing to the cognitive age, and it's not easy

Howeer to achieve the  prospects of the “Science Futurism” coming true in real life  would be just impossible without the humanity passing to new, cognitive, stage. These are just loud words, wich  have been  being repeated by many various peoples for a long time. But currently the moment it could be implemented had come. Moreover no further   development is possible without it. But the opposite site of the development is collapse.