Biocoenosis carrying capacity managing

Transdiciplinary approach applying in order to work out the Cognitive policy

Escaping the “Malthusian trap” of overpopulation, analyzing demographic disbalance and demographic transition mechanism.

Or

Transdiciplinary approach applying in order to work out the Cognitive policy

Analyzing the overpopulation threat by drawing to that analysis the biological population evolution laws and latest demographic data published in internet, reports from TED conferences of various years, the Gapminder project of prof Rosling,

The reports-presentations for TED Conferences by Hans Rosling on the Changes in the modern World and the population growth problem

CIA World Factbook for 2100

Vrs 17/01/2012

 

Vision on the Big History context from the point of view of the evolutionary biology. Applying evolutionary ecology in order to understand the nature of the demography trends.

“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.” (Mary Curie)

ABSTRACT

Since the intense Globalisation process had got embracing the global Earth, Earth may be regarded as a single biocenoesis of one leading species H. Sapins. That vision would include the understanding of the human kind as the single population. Hence the mechanisms of biocoenosis evolution are to be taking into account while carrying out Human activities of any kind.

Demography strongly affects the pattern of social organization. Many experts are considering the demography disbalance problems the main reason of the conflicts intensification over the modern World. Here it is assumed that the modern conflict intensification can not be regarded outside the context of the global human population evolution. The Globalization, Urbanisation, economical development together with the communication means development are regarded here as integral parts of social evolution of human kind. Simultaneously they significantly increase the demographic disbalance. This process of uniting of several separate populations into singleglobal one caused the social evolution disbalance between them. Simultaneously the ecology laws of population density autoregulation were switched on by that process. This evolutionary disbalance seriously impede the process of the transition to the next evolutionary stage. Yet nothing can be said on the following stage. However the most of developing counties with the retarding cultures are still to pass from the traditional society pattern to its update form. Till now there is no single term for that newcoming society pattern – some researchers call it the Informational World, others – the postmodern society. However that would be more logic to call that newcoming era “afterpostmodernism”. The transition to that society type is the key for overpopulation problem solving within the context of the further global Earth biocoenosis evolution. To facilitate that process would not be possible without working out and applying the sensible natural science based methods of social engineering – in other words without Global Marshal plan initiative initiating (ref report of Sergei Kapiza to the Club of Rome, 2006).

New vision of the widely discussed relation of fertility and socioeconomical development is offered here.

INTRODUCTION

1. Nature-society relations.

Biocoenosis ( biocoenose , biocenose , biotic community , biological community , ecological community ), coined by Karl Möbius in 1877, describes the interacting organisms living together in a habitat ( biotope ).

The general the word Nature means one biocenoesis in some geographic area or a series of them . They differ from each other by ecological conditions and hence by the species composition. The latter is determined by the certain living conditions, by resources available for species living within this area and by the interrelations among all the species. It may be called also ecosystem. Very close to it is the conception of biogeocoenosis. That means the system including the community of all living organisms on some territory together with the complex of the abiotic factors of the species’ surroundings. Biogeocoenosis is autoregulating sustainable system, that includes as biotic components, so all the related to them abiotic factors. The abiotic factors are related with the system biotic components by cycle of matters and energy flow. The term biogeocoenosis was first introduced By Vladimir Sechenov in the 1949^th. This term has seldom been used in English-language literature, however the German scholars used it in their works. That definition supposes certain interaction between the biotic system and the abiotic area’s factors. Since water ecosystems do not experience much influence of the underlying ground they are traditionally not considered as biogeocenoesis. However that fine terminology difference is still discussed by many authors

Life and activity of human beings is heavily affected by the abiotic conditions of the area they live in, hence if speaking of certain human society the term biogeocoenosis fits perfectly to its description.

Since the Globalisation had started, the human biogeoceonosis enlarged to cover all the accessible Earth territory, so it may be considered equal to the whole biosphere. That also means that the scope of the World-System got enlarged and embrace now the entire global World.

The stability of any biogeocoenosis is provided by the cycle of matters and the directions of the energy flows through the system.

Currently the cycle of matters and the energy flow is determined mainly by H. sapiens’ activity influence. Hence that species determines its biocenoesis composition and evolution.

Like any living nature species, H sapiens uses the resources of its bioceonosis resources to sustain its living, ie for its activity ensuring. In order to transform these resources in the acceptable affordable forms human beings are to process them using their cognitive activity. To increase that processing efficiency it uses as its own cognitive activity, so interactions with other members of its surrounding society. The productive efficiency is determined mainly by intersociety relations ie by social organization, or political and economical relations.

The efficiency of the certain social organization may be estimated by some statistics parametras, which include as economical so demography datae

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If peoples innate cognitive activity is a natural factor, that could hardly be affected, its realization strongly depends on social interrelations. ( V.P. Efraimson, Genetic pedagogy, in Russian) And that could be managed. (Wallece B., Cesarini D., Lichtenstein P etal. 2008. Heritability of ultimawtum game responder behavior//Proc.Natl. Acad. Ssci USA)

Hence currently the Narure protection – or the Earth biosphere, H.Sapiens geobiocoenosis - is inseparably related with this species social evolution. That social evolution is to ensure the intense use of bioceonosis resources and thus increasing the Global biocoenosis carrying capacity by the resources use’ optimization

Beside the above, the increasing population number within human limited areal of the planet Earth leads to serious increase of the influence of the population density regulation mechanisms on human social behavior. The influence of such mechanisms affects the emotions first of all. By that they determine the direction of cognitive decisions (А. Марков. Эволюция человека. Обезьяны нейроны и душа)

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For other biological species, but H Sapiens, these population density mechanisms are the following: intraspecific straggle increase, various kinds of epizooties, expansion to new areas, unclaimed previously. In the 1972 the book Limits of Growth was presented by Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III to the Club of Rome

After the classic population evolution theory the response to the biocenoesis resources overexploiting would be the species expansion to new areas of habitat. By now the human beings habitat covers all the accessible part of the Globe.

In the end of the 19^th century K Cyolkovsky, Russian cosmology-futurist, pushed forward the idea of space expansion that would break the natural human habitat limitation. Till now that brilliant idea of the space expansion is far from realization and works out only in space operas. That means that currently the only way to smooth down the population density autoregulation effects (ie intrastraspcific struggle’ increase and various epizooties coming up) is to improve the managing of the social life – to realize that transition to the new stage of social evolution.

Below the approach to this is offered.

2. the reasons for demography transition

The statistics is very important, however the mathematicians may well do serious mistake if they do not understand the mechanism of the observed process. That means that if two events are observed simultaneously, it is easy to suggest that there is a direct cause-effect relation between these two observations, that one causes the another one. However it is not always so at all or, in other words, that Post hoc non est ergo propter hoc. In order to get reliable interpretation of these data the very mechanism of the process is to be understood.

 

To start that overview we should depart from one of the prof. Rosling presentations at one of the TED Conferences of 2010 http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/hans_rosling_on_global_population_growth.html

and presented in his Gapminder project. In that report Hans Rosling explains why ending poverty – over the coming decades – is crucial to stop population growth. After presenting the statistics data he put forward the assumption that only by raising the living standards of the poorest by humanitarian aid providing and by children survival rate increase it would be possible to stop the population growth at 9 billion people in 2050.http://www.gapminder.org/videos/population-growth-explained-with-ikea-boxes/ The conclusions he comes to here are very important because of the influential role he plays in many international structures, for instance, in UNISEF. His conclusions affect to decision-making process. The main question is how that struggle against poverty is to be carried out – ie should it be a model to do it within the multi-culty approach by just providing humanitarian goods, or by changing the social pattern and thus by the change of peoples mind pattern.

He regards the overpopulation problem as the main one now. He is not alone in it; the Global overpopulation and related to that process population aging and demography disbalance are concerned to be the central global problem by many scholars, for instance by Gary Fuller that introduced in 1995the term Youth bubble, and by prof Si Frumkin. In 2003 Gunnar Heinsohn suggested that when the share of 15 to 29 year old peoples make up more than 30% of the population, violence tends to happen unavoidably.

In details: population blow up leads to peoples density in human aggregation increase, and hence the individual security space shortening. That individual space shortening causes unavoidable intraspecific aggression increase. In the modern society condition that aggression inside uniform part of society is heavily suppressed. That constant internal suppression leads to constant psychological stress. The latter results in many various psychological and behavioral disorders and perversions. One of the ways of society self-preserving to is to channel that aggression outside. The reasons of that violence may be immaterial – it is regarded in detail further on.

Another source of constant stress is the competition challenge that person usually meets in modern mobile society.

So here we assume that this increased stress level switch on the ecological law of a population transfer from K-strategy of a population self-reproduction (many  poorly adopted descendants) to r-strategy (few well adapted descenders). The latter ensures the population climax state ie long-term plateau of species density in the constant surrounding conditions.

Currently many demography experts speak on the demography transfer that would stop the population growth somewhat in the closest future. However nobody have explained yet the reason that transfer had started.

In the beginning the demographic transfer came up as the total fertility rate –TER - falling. It started first in the Western countries or in the Most Economically Developed Countries, MEDC, mainly in Europe. Experts of the Max Planck Demography institute even call it “low-lowest fertility”. So it started in Europe first. At the first sight those researches results proves indeed that fertility is negatively correlated with well-being. Many suppositions on its reason were done, as the changes in female social life, female education, crisis of the family etc. However since the very recent times, the phenomena of falling fertility is observed World-wide, while inside the MED countries experts say on the “End of low lowest fertility” – see the article of Joshua Goldstein from the Laboratory of Economic and Social Demography of the Max Plank Institute of Demography http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/research/1655.htm. In that article he presents that total fertility rate (the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime. It is not the same with the fertility of any real group of women, since this would involve waiting until they had completed childbearing.), so in those works he present TFR data for several countries of Europe and South-West countries. In the end of 20^th cent, in 90-es these countries experienced serious TFR falling, called by many scholars “low lowest fertility period”. However the recently obtained data confirm that the relation fertility rate – well-being turned backward within the first 10 years of the 21^st century. The author especially empathies that it occurs only due the sensible state social policy introducing.

However that phenomena are quite new. To explain their occurrence various explanations were put forward, starting from economical to the culturological-political ones.

The Rosling’s report on overpopulation problem is grounded on the excellent statistics data. However if the recommendations he gives after his reports are followed, that would just increase the risks connected with demographic transition and Youth bulging.

Many recent demography studies as well as the mentioned above works of the prof Gunnar Heinsohn, prove that the process of demographic transition is highly risky. The delay of the population growth falling in comparison with the change of surrounding conditions lead to highly reactive and unstable Youth Bubbles occur.

To smooth that risk down slightly it the main reason of that demographic transition is to be realized.

To do it the biology laws are to be applied to the demography data. Through that vision the main current problem of social evolution gets clear. The population blow-up problem is just direct consequence of it.

That means that the demographic problem (or the problem of overpopulation) may be solved only by curing its reason.

Beside that increase of inrtaspecific aggression level, there is the second, more serious threat - the Earth biocoenosis carrying capacity overexploiting– which means that sometime the non-renewable resources would run to the end, and peoples would just have neither place to live in nor resources to use to supply their life. The competition would severely increase, the war of anybody to against anybody, and “the strongest survive!” It looks terrific, does not it? By nowadays the terrific 19^th century forecast of Malthus looks more and more convincing, does it not?

That terrific Malthus’ forecast is just one of the rising problems and there is a wide complex of them. (see the report to the Club of Rome, 2006 by prof. Sergey Kapiza “The population blow-up and after” , the articles of dr Vyazovsky, the Head of the Institute of Demography, the Russian Federation, dr Dalkhat Ediev from the Vienne Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Science http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/staff/staff_dalkhat_ediev.shtml, the works of the Max Planck Institute of Demography Researches, Germany). However most of these experts say that despite the population blow-up in the developing countries, the general fertility rate over all the World in sum is falling, the global human population is now experiencing that demographic transition and by the middle of the 21^st century it would stop and get even reducing.

However the speed of that transition differs a lot over the word. That makes the population structure in various countries very imbalanced. That imbalance brings new problems – see Si Frumkin the Continent of losers http://www.sifrumkin.com/pdf/bulgept1w.pdf http://www.sifrumkin.com/letters/20070806.pdf and the Prophetic pyramid http://www.sifrumkin.com/letters/20070918.pdfwicjis.com The statistics from his works confirms the misbalance between the MEDC’ and the Developing countries’ birth rates.

There are many observations that birth rate is somehow related with the level of economical development of the society and with its urbanization level. However that observed relation was still not explained. So here the mechanism of that transfer is proposed.

All modern innovations, as science and technical, so medical and business management ones occurred since they were pushed forward by market economy requirements. They occurred not at once, that process was slow, gradual and took about 300 years, approximately since the end of Middle Ages eve in the countries of temperate zone. So the corresponding social situation in these countries was gradually evolved too and that lead to social evolution of the Modern Times. Both those processes, as fertility so children mortality rates, were staying more or less balanced. The long-term development period gave the social patterns in the advanced countries enough time to get adjusted to the condition changes till the 20^th century came. In the 20^th century the autocatylitic changes in surrounding conditions got too fast for the social evolution were able to meet them. These great changes resulted in the deepest social changes. In the most rigid state systems it resulted in revolutions, the rest of the World suffered two World Wars and Great depression . Sexual Revolution of 60es was of the same nature, thought not that bloody one.

So the social pattern of those states evolved step-be-step from the so-called traditional society one. The traditional society pattern is characterized by rather steady class society stratification, low peoples mobility, but what is the most important for demography – by high infant mortality rate and high birth rate correspondingly, and low life expectancy. The transfer to the industrial production lead to the further means of production development. The industrialization was followed by urbanization. Under the conditions of urban overpopulation the traditional commune of peoples separated into single individuals. That individualization was also favored by increased competition level. The market offer is also oriented to meet the individual request

The pattern of the market-based society had to get more flexible in order to succeed. So in course of many hazardous attempts and crisis the modern Western style democracy developed. The social pattern in those countries got gradually updated correspondingly.

The countries of the traditional state pattern - or of that one, based mostly on the natural resources use - mainly agricultural resources formerly, crude oil and gaze nowadays - these states were developing too due to the innate creative power and its innate and eternal aspiration to improve its living conditions – or in other words due to human search activity.

Under the conditions of the steady state pattern the only exit for this aspiration was the spiritual sphere that didn’t threaten the state pattern as much as any economic activity. So the spiritual achievements of those societies may look impressive indeed for any outside observer. However, while staying just spiritual, none of these great achievements would contribute the social pattern development.

It is regarded closer in the essay on the challenges that global civilization is meeting since the globalization burst started http://olgasorokina.org/Ideologyauthocracydanger1308.htm In few words these competing patterns of social systems that may be determined as the “indvidualised pattern” and as the “Hive one” in the contrast. These social systems are determined by the mind pattern of its members. The systems are close to those, that were determined as "extracrive" and "inclusive" systems by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson in their book “why the nations fail: The origin of power, prosperity and poverty” of the 2012.

It seems that following the “extractive” system offer the way to escape the Malthusian trap and to overcome the Limits of Growth.

This challenge is just about 150 years old. In the 20th century Globalization burst starting due to the technical innovations in the connection means and to the business management innovations. After it burst staring, the space of modern technical and medical advances broadened out from the MEDC to just the most of the countries in the World. It goes on together with urbanization level increase and with the shift of peoples, employed in goods production, from agriculture to industries.

According to the UN State of the World Population 2007 report, sometime in the middle of 2007, the majority of people Worldwide will be living in towns or cities, for the first time in history; this is referred to as the arrival of the "Urban Millennium" or the 'tipping point'. In regard to future trends, it is estimated 93% of urban growth will occur in developing nations, with 80% of urban growth occurring in Asia and Africa

The communication means development as a result of industrialization increased the industrial countries population mobility. In the second half of the 20^th century the information exchange means development (of internet first of all) significantly accelerated the Globalisation. That facilitated the information exchange between the parts of the population that were separated previously.

By now there are a lot of factual confirmations that all those political breakdowns were strongly facilitated by the electronic means of information exchange development. This information exchange means broadened  people horizon.

That lead to  the collapse of many autocratic, Hive-like states, which used to be shut before.

The response to these conditions exchange is to be the relevant social mind pattern exchange too.

Nowadays prompt changes of the living conditions often goes ahead the corresponding social pattern changes. As for behavior pattern – or mind pattern further on – its changing by many reasons gets even more postponed. That crashing of the traditional mind pattern is very stressful for its subdues and simultaneously risky for any society.

The traditional mind pattern of the majority of citizens of some state forms ground that state power structures. So that structures are highly keen in preserving citizens from mind pattern changing. That state structures resisting results in the military conflicts “against the West”.

Simultaneously that stress at individual level results in singles acts of violence – so comes up the intraspecific aggression increase.

These individual acts go beyond any logical schemes, like hysterics. All those violence acts are just signs of the intraspecific aggression level increase.

In order to smooth slightly down this violence level rise its nature is to be understood. As it was already proved above, it results from the social stress level rising due to the pass of the society from the traditional patter to the new one.

In order to prove this process inevitability the general rule of any biocenouse maturing are to be regarded.

DISCUSSION .

Till the 20th century with all its medical innovations starts the child mortality rate was high. The high fertility rate compensated it and ensured slow and gradual population growth. In the meanwhile the science and technique innovations, the results of the human brain Searching Activity ( see the works on the Search activity and cognitive activity of human brain by Dr. V. Rotenberg, psychiatrist, psychophysiologist, psychophysiology of sleep; brain hemisphere functions; resistance to stress; pathogenesis of mental and psychosomatic disorders; creativity; psychotherapy). Author of the Search Activity Concept, which integrates type of behavior, body resistance to stress and diseases, REM sleep functions, brain hemisphere functions and presents a new explanation of mental and psychosomatic disorders. http://rjews.net/v_rotenberg/book4.html ). The Searching Activity had evolved from common for any living species feedback response. Further on it was evolving together with animal nervous system development. At the stage of H.sapiens occurrence it got combined with its cognitive activity. Together they came to the human ability to exchange its surrounding conditions after its own current requirements.

The cognitive activity together with searching activity ensured the science and technical innovations. These innovations realization depends of both brain physiology and social conditions, one’s socializing and education. To stop this process would mean to cancel further human kind development. That is the strongest argument contra the human eusociality evolutionary trend. The evolution of eusociality for other social animal species had got studied just recently. Some articles concerning that issue were published in the year 2010. That direction seems to be quite new. The results of the studies look very interesting.

However following that way of evolution would require significant decrease the society members individual diversity and searching activity. That activity is required to meet the constantly running changes in and the demands of surrounding conditions. Those changes have as natural nature, so autocalytic nature as peoples cognitive activity results.

All the technical innovations occurred since they were pushed forward by economy demand. They resulted in social situation in the MEDC countries gradual evolution. The surrounding conditions, which include as merely living conditions so the social pattern of the Most Economically Developed Countries MEDC - in other words, in the countries with the state pattern, developed on the ground of Free market, - experienced gradual corresponding changes. So both those processes, as fertility so children mortality rates, were staying more or less balanced. The long-term development period gave the social patterns in the advanced countries enough time to get adjusted to the condition changes.

In course of the human civilization evolution the heterotrophic nature – or basic life ensuring requirements - of H. Sapiens forwarded the economy development. That made the economy in the MEDCs moving from the one based on agriculture or other forms of nature recourses use to industrial production of goods. So its social pattern had to change from the traditional one to the social pattern of industrial society. This process was burdened by many conflicts all over the World, revolutions of various kinds all over the World and two World Wars.

The social patterns of less industrially developed countries were different, however all them were staying somewhat close to the traditional one for a long time, till the Globalisation in the second half of the 20^th century burst starting after the Internet development.

The traditional society pattern is characterized by rather steady class society stratification, low peoples mobility, high mortality rate and high birth rate correspondingly, and low life expectancy. The transfer to the industrial production lead to the further market economy development, hence to urbanization. The pattern of the market-based society had to get more flexible in order to succeed. So in course of many hazardous attempts and crisis the modern Western style democracy developed. The social pattern in those countries has been got updated accordingly.

The countries of the traditional pattern of state, that one, based on the natural resources use - mainly agricultural resources formerly - these states were developing too due to the innate creative power and its innate and eternal aspiration to improve its living conditions – or in other words due to human search activity.

Under the conditions of the steady state pattern the only exit for this aspiration was the spiritual sphere that didn’t threaten the state pattern as much as any economic activity. So the spiritual achievements of those societies may look impressive indeed for any outside observer. However, while staying just spiritual, none of these great achievements would contribute the social pattern development.

It is regarded closer in the essay on the challenges that civilization is meeting since the globalization burst started http://olgasorokina.org/Ideologyauthocracydanger1308.htm

In 20th century due to the technical innovations in the connection means and to the business management innovations Globalisation burst starting. After it burst staring, the space of modern technical and medical advances broadened out from the MEDC to just the most of the countries. It goes on together with urbanization level increase and shift of peoples employed in economic production from agriculture to industries.

According to the UN State of the World Population 2007 report, sometime in the middle of 2007, the majority of people Worldwide will be living in towns or cities, for the first time in history; this is referred to as the arrival of the "Urban Millennium" or the 'tipping point'. In regard to future trends, it is estimated 93% of urban growth will occur in developing nations, with 80% of urban growth occurring in Asia and Africa

That means that by now the surrounding conditions are changing much faster. The response to these conditions exchange is to be the relevant social mind pattern exchange too.

Nowadays often the conditions exchange was going ahead the corresponding social pattern changes. As for behavior pattern – or mind pattern further on – its changing gets by many reasons even more postponed. That crashing of the traditional mind pattern is very stressful and simultaneously risky. However that crashing is the only way to avoid catastrophic way of population density autoregulation.

THE GENERAL RULES OF MATURING BIOCEONOSIS TRANSITION

As for population growth rate changes within the scope of global trends - the ecology knows well the transfer of any maturing biocenosis from the prevailing of the species with reproductive strategy of r-type – so-called r-strategy, when a specimen has many  poorly adopted descendants, - to the domination of the species with the K-strategy, ie 1-2 much more adapted babies. That transfer is ensuring the biocenosis sustainability by passing the population to the climax plateau trough many succession stages .

So just after ecological law of population density autoregulation the global population got decreasing in the countries-leaders of the social evolution process or the MEDC.

Why the Globalisation changes “the rules of a game”?

The global human population was for a long time divided into numerous sub-populations with different social patterns. Among these patterns two main could be determined – that one, based on individual mind development - or on the Western-like type democracy - and another branch based on Hive-like pattern organization of the state or in other words on autocracy. This question is regarded in details here http://olgasorokina.org/txt_HumanSocietyEvolutionTends.htm

That allows us to assume that the relevant mind patterns are related not with any certain religion but with the social pattern more.

The reasons of demographic transition disbalance – the disbalance in the development level of global human civilization.

For various reasons some of those sub-populations were staying off the development mainstream and their social patterns were not evolving to the same direction. Like any isolated population did, they were still evolving, but in the direction that went apart that mainstream of increasing the resource use. They were staying within the pattern of traditional community. So their own unique social patterns got developing. In order to prevent any further social changes the state-forming powers within those sub-populations got strengthening. and increased its influence on the mind of their subdues by suppressing their individual mind development.

Until the conditions were not changing that fast as they did in the 20^th century, those patterns were staying more-or-less fit them. The long time of their existing influenced mind pattern too. The mind pattern of a traditional society member usually rather authoritarian, commune-oriented and traditions-caring. This behavioral pattern occurred due to the necessity to ensure the population sustainability in constant surrounding conditions. Mind individuality was suppressed in the name of the commune goals achieving. In some cases this commune-orientation may be serious advantage in struggle with the opponents.

Now this process of mind individuality suppressing occurs in the MEDC as well due the marketing and polittechnologies mechanisms development. Their modern progress made that “invisible hand of market” described by Adam Smith in the 19^th century, not that invisible. Simultaneously the previous evolution of these countries state structures has removed the lowest limit for cognitive activity development together with motive for searching activity as features that used to be required before for surviving. The psychological dangers of this process is described in details here http://olgasorokina.org/txt_Market%20autocracy.htm,

Aiming to meeting any customer unique need the Market Autocracy significantly promote falling of people with poorly developed individual mind under the the influence of Narcissistic syndrome. The WHO determines it as a medical problem the Narcissistic personality disorder. It determines it as a serious decease that need special treatment. This loud scientific name makes the Narcissus person believing that it's a serious decease that need no patient efforts, just medicines are needed to cure it. It takes off from him any blame and it sounds even somewhat flattering – look, how special I AM!

However the same thing was threatened formerly as just poor breeding or, in other words, just poor juvenile socializing. In other words it used to be called the “spoilt child” A thing that may perfectly been fixed through child' developing in course of the one's juvenile period. Unfortunately unlike the medicines treatment it needs some objects efforts too...

So the market-forming technologies strongly favouring the Narcissism personality disorder development. This Narcissism syndrome also favoured the postmodernisms style flowering

At the point of market success we'd find a kind of Nesterov loop – the innovative way of some resource use may occurred only in result of man independent cognitive activity, but its development decrease the competitive man's success in market conditions!

That ambitious problem is perfectly illustrated by results of the experiment, carried out in the Bell Company in 60-es. (The experiment is described in the article the The ‘Learning Knights’ of Bell Telephone by Wes Davis in the NY times Published: June 15, 2010) In order to increase the “innovative capacity” of its high-tech business the company management tried to follow the recommendations of the sociologist E. Digby Baltzell in an article published in Harper’s magazine in 1955: “A well-trained man knows how to answer questions, they reasoned; an educated man knows what questions are worth asking.” That is why the program of the deeper humanitarian education for the engeneering staff of the company was initiated. It got significant increase of the staff creativity indeed

However soon that program was stopped for it turned out that this reflective mind development while increasing the creativity significantly decreases he stuff competitiveness in the market conditions. The tactic success got bothering the program participants much less! In general the psychologists have already proved that higher reflection level hamper the person social adaptation.

This Bell’ experiment was desctibed by Wes Davis in his NYTimers article from 14^th og June 2010 the Learning Knights http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/16/opinion/16davis.html?pagewanted=2

Apparently that the described above Nesterov loop between economicasl trend to meet any customer’ demand and the system demand for cognitive activity development was one of the reasons those made the Most Economically Dreverloped Countries falling into the current wide-scope crisis. Since those countries are determining now the main international development trends, the crisis affected the Whole Word and significantly increased the political instability there.

The individual is to be able to make reason-based choice after its own decisions. The importance of this ability was many times discussed by various authorized theorists, such as Knocke, B (1990) in his Political networks: structural perspective (Cambridge, England; New York Cambridge University Press)

He places emphasis on information and knowledge, in addition to material resources as a «basis» for defining «power» to produce intended efforts on the attitudes or behaviors of other actors in the transactions around network». The skill of any person ability to make independent conclusions was also discussed by Richard Thousand in his «Straight and crooked thinking». Muslim writer from Jordan Shechar Al-Nabusi was complaining on lost Muslims mind. Prof. Pervez Amirali Hoodbhoy, the professor of nuclear and high-energy physics, and the head of the Physics Department at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan in his article in the Phisicstoday from August 2007, page 49 regrets that internal causes led to the decline of Islam's scientific greatness long before the era of mercantile imperialism. He says that to contribute once again, Muslims must be introspective and ask what went wrong. However hard it could be expected under the conditions of the current model of “political correctness” that means no efforts to be paid by the looser. Jordan is special state at the moment but it seems to be doomed after its Shakh death. Today as there so in and in the UAE there are some wise leaders but their future depends just on “God's will” only – would be their heirs that wise too? And the abundant crowds by the «poor Palestine oppressed refugees» with archaic psychological pattern could aim to zero the most of there achievements. .

Managing public psychology changes – hence managing intraspecific struggling

So instead of huge humanitarian aid in form of ready goods from all the Western Word the peoples in the socially retarding countries are be trained in using new technologies – as productive technologies so the modern social managing ones . New job opportunities are to be created to prevent further society lumpenization and hence its radicalization. Via the assistance of the international institutes new socio-political, administrative technologies are to be brought in order to maintain this new society type. New attitude toward life and new social interrelations should be taught since childhood while behavior patterns are easily accepted by juveniles from the more authorised people. Almost the same thing has already been done by the New Zealand in its Asian- Pacific region. according to the facts, presented at In September 2000, the Millennium Summit in Rio That approach is also closely regarded at in the monograph Evolution and Learning: The Baldwin Effect Reconsidered (Life and Mind: Philosophical Issues in Biology and Psychology) under the edition of Bruce H. Weber and David J. Depew http://www.amazon.com/Evolution-Learning-Reconsidered-Philosophical-Psychology/dp/0262232294

However the post-podernism process of noral relativism has apparently been working in international politics of the main states, when running political state interests take over the general tong-term interest.. It grounded the myth on the USA president Nixon saying on some leader of Nicaragua rebels “Somoza may be a son of a bitch, but he’s our son of a bitch.” Recently it made two influential political actors of the USA Anatol Lieven and John Holsman writing the book “Ethical realism. A vision of the America’s role in the World”. In this book its authors (one of them -the democrat, the second one– the republican) explained the interests of the USA in supporting that time authoritarians regimes of the Middle East – those, that had just failed, quite unexpectedly.

In this case the running realpolitics interests may make evolutionary leaders keave aside the evolutionary goal they are to be looking for. The same happen when Big Business interests affect the international affairs.

In order to try the way of figuring out the overpopulation problem solution the following features of the traditional community are crucial.

Traditional community – or the unified members commune - means rather rigid permanent stratification and high birth and mortality rates. Simultaneously it is characterized by low mind individuality level and low mobility.

That low individual mind level is the most crucial feature of the Hive psychology, the behavioral pattern of the social species. Prof Jonatan Haidt, Associate Professor of Psychology at the University of Virginia regards in many of his works the questions Hive Psychology effects in human sociopsychology. He discuss its relation with happiness and religion. To clarify these issues he wrote several works on it: the essay MORAL PSYCHOLOGY AND THE MISUNDERSTANDING OF RELIGION ( published in  J. Schloss & M. Murray (eds.), (2009). The believing primate: Scientific, philosophical, and theological reflections on the origin of religion. New York: Oxford. pp. 278-291) as well as his book The Happiness Hypothesis: Finding Modern Truth in Ancient Wisdom (© 2006 by Jonathan Haidt. Published by Basic Books. ). He emphasize that crucial moment for public happiness achieving are not some divine, some spiritual ideas, but its commonly used mass ritual interpretation. That mass rituals was also typical for any authoritarian state or the totalitarian ideology. The mass rituals strongly facilitate human mind individuality failing and hence crowds of different peoples uniting around their leaders and falling under Hive psychology effect. The same Hive psychology effect ensure the power of ritual-based part of any religion over peoples’ minds.

Now that effect is widely used by struggling political powers to unite peoples around them.

Under the current conditions of constantly increasing population density in the developing countries the Hive psychology may lead to so called Lemming effect (see the Lemmings Effect in the Globalised World http://olgasorokina.org/txt_Lemming.htm )

The severest non-stop conflicts take place right at the border of these two social patterns – the traditional and the upgrade one, - meet each other. The social mind of the traditional communities members are getting less fit the living conditions than are the social mind pattern of the mainstream countries, to meet the uncommon social changes of that new milieu they are to intensify the links inside their group. That also increase the Hive effect.

So even if the traditional pattern-countries would change the social structure to the more advanced one, the mind patterns would have not enough time to get adjusted to those changes. Currently that causes many troubles in the so called Developing countries

Hence the folk social traditions’ friendly well-being increase would not guarantee the population growth rate decrease.

This is very simple and attractive way to follow, so many left-oriented intellectuals do. However the problem is not just in people personal well-being or even child morality rate.

There are many examples of the Third World states leaders, whose wives did never suffered the high child mortality rate, have dozens children. On the contrary, the higher social status of some person is, the higher is his personal well-being the more children he breeds.

Another convincing case-study is the example of the Russian demography changes. They show that the correlation well-being –birthrate may be converse sometimes as well. In Russia the general mortality rate -not just the children ones- exceeded the birth rate for a long time. The well-being of Russians after the USSR collapse fell significantly. However instead of rising the birth rate fell too, so by nowadays Russia gets gradually depopulated with the rate - 0.465% (CIAWorld Factbook 2010). In order to fight that threat the government in the 2007th started the federal program of children mortality rate decreasing and females well-being increasing in the connection with the number children female brings up. After the conclusion of Mr Rosling’s report these steps were to reduce the birthrate instead.
However for the first half of the 2009 the index of infant mortality decreased for 10% - simultaneously the birth rate for the same period got increased for 4.7%.

The most evident example is difference between North and South Koreas. Both countries are formed by the same people with historically the same traditions, mind patterns etc. but strictly divided apart about 60 years ago. Now the income of the North Korea people is hardly higher than that in the South Korea ones, but the population growth rate is just slightly higher than in its neighbor and originally brother (0.398% vs0,25% correspondingly after the CIA World Factbook of 2010). And that is despite all the efforts of the North Korea government. ( these efforts may seem ridiculouse for the rest of the World peoples, but for the North Korea citizens they are relatively great in comparison with rest of peoples conditions)

The infant mortality rate there is very high 50.51 infant deaths per 1000 birth, while in the South Korea it is just 4.25 death per 1.000 births. After the Rosling assumption that would also strongly contribute to the birth rate growing. However it does not help the North Korea government to overcome its rival significantly in fertility rate. Even the state control over the contraceptive means distribution can not increase the population fertility rate. The day-by-day stress peoples are experiencing due political state governing is extremely high anyway.

Often many researchers claim the female education, independence and the contraceptives access in the Western countries fertility rate decrease. However the example of the North Korea proves that at least not the education and contraceptives access affects the fertility falling. The contraceptives are available in the North Korea, but the are distributed under strict state control and thus they are not easy to get. The cultural input could be also estimated to some level at the examples of both Koreas and the China, Singapore and Taiwan, the states with very close originally population, as well.

First, with the use of statistics data from the publisher sources, we are going to try out the correlation between the infant mortality rate and the birth rate. The data analysis proves that the relation between infant mortality rate and birth rate is not that direct. For instance in Israel, the infant mortality rate is very low, 4.17 deaths/1,000 live births after the data from the CIA World Factbook 2010 but the total fertility rate (TFR) is 2.72 children per woman. Among Haredi Jews the TFR is even higher. For Ashkenazi Haredim, the TFR rose to 8.51 in 1996 from 6.91 in 1980. The figure for 2008 is estimated to be even higher. TFR for Sephardi/Mizrachi Haredim rose from 4.57 in 1980 to 6.57 in 1996. Israel infant mortality rate is one of the lowest in the World. So apparently the influence of infant mortality rate onto the birth rate is too not that crucial as it was assumed before.

It points out to the important influence of cultural background on the fertility rate. However further it would be shown that the cultural background is not that crucial as it seems at the first sight

Let’s return to the Koreas example exploring to clarify the reason of fertility rate falling.

Apparently that sectoral stratification of production forces in the society - and hence the social pattern of a country - are more crucial for the birth rate that the infant mortality.

The sectoral economy distribution in the North Korea is the following: 37% of peoples are working in agriculture and 63% - in industries. In the meanwhile in the South Korea only 3% of peoples are working in agriculture, 39% - in industries and 57,5% - in services providing sector. So the community sectoral stratification in the North Korea is in fact much more archaic and retarding than that in the South Korea. Just the TFR is still very low. Why?

At the example of both Korea comparing we have already regarded and excluded above the influence of the female education, contraceptives access, even the common folks cultural origin. The only factor that stays not regarded is individual stress level.

That picture is also confirmed by demography data from China, Singapore and Taiwan. Despite similar cultural origin the their fertility rates differ a lot. However in China there was strong state control impact, so these data are not valuable without thoughtful investigations

So neither cultural factor nor fertility rate are that crucial for population growth decrease. To make clearer the case is to be considered closer.

Possible Reasons for population reproduction rate decrease in the Mostly Economically Development Countries.

The increased economical well-being got the result of economy development and corresponding social evolution from the traditional community social pattern. Simultaneously economy was growing up – and the citizens well-being as well. This economical growth was caused by the industrialization. Industrialization caused urbanization increase. Urbanization makes peoples living in abnormal living conditions, in high individuals aggregations density and in other highly abnormal conditions of life style. They all lead to higher level of psychological stress. That general stress increase due to increasing level of urbanization (ie living in abnormal stressful conditions) lead to general human reproductive function seems to have deteriorated considerably during the past 4–5 decades even without artificial contraception means!

This process made person meeting constant challenges, as social, so those from new environment conditions. That stress causes serious fertility rate decrease simultaneously the life longevity significantly increases.

Relationship between psychological stress and semen quality among in-vitro fertilization patients Oxford Journals, Medicine, Human Reproduction Volume14, Issue3 Pp. 753-758, by Robert N. Clarke, Susan C. Klock 2, Anne Geoghegan, David E. Travassos

High frequency of sub-optimal semen quality in an unselected population of young men

Oxford Journals, Medicine, Human Reproduction, volume15, Issue2m pp366-372 high frequency of sub-optimal semen quality in unselected population if young men A.G. Andersen1,5, T.K. Jensen2, E. Carlsen1, N. Jørgensen1, A.M. Andersson1, T1 Krarup3, N. Keiding4 and N.E. Skakkebæk1 (ref articles on human fertility in High frequency of sub-optimal semen quality in an unselected population of young men
• A.G. Andersen1,5, T.K. Jensen2, E. Carlsen1, N. Jørgensen1, A.M. Andersson1, T. Krarup3, N. Keiding4 and N.E. Skakkebæk1
in Oxford Journals, Medicine, Human Reproduction, Volume15, Issue2, Pp. 366-372. http://humrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/15/2/366.abstract
Relationship between psychological stress and semen quality among in-vitro fertilization patients
Robert N. Clarke1, Susan C. Klock2,4, Anne Geoghegan3 and David E. Travassos1 in Oxford Journals, Medicine, Human Reproduction, Volume14, Issue3, Pp. 753-758 http://humrep.oxfordjournals.org/content/14/3/753.abstract
Decline in Semen Quality among Fertile Men in Paris during the Past 20 Years
Jacques Auger, M.D., Ph.D., Jean Marie Kunstmann, M.D., Françoise Czyglik, M.D., and Pierre Jouannet, M.D.
N Engl J Med 1995; 332:281-285February 2, 1995 http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJM199502023320501

The relation between lifestyle changes and fertility is also confirmed by the recent researches of the Laboratory the Economics Social Demography of the Max Planck Institute of Demography, Germany (ref the publications of Joshua R. Goldstain et al. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/en/staff/goldstein/default.htm )

SEMI-CONCLUSION –

the science on the overpopulation problems solving

So the conclusion one could come to as a result of analyzing as data from the Rosling’s reports, so the information from other sources:

1. the heterotrophic nature of human animals together with its searching and cognitive activity were ground to economy development. Economics needs caused industrialization, and the following urbanization. All these factors together pushed the social pattern changing. The enormous changes in the World are reflected in the mr Rosling report at the TED Conferernce 2006 “the 200years that changed the World”. All these changes started approximately together with the bourgeois revolutions in Europe. They significantly enlarged the biocoenosis carrying capacity.

2. all these reasons made the MED countries population drifting to the stressful abnormal living condition. That drift had to be accompanied by mind patterns changes too with highly increased level of individualization. All the life style was to change – and the lifestyle changes are highly stressful as well. That stress caused the fertility rate falling.

3. Simultaneously in order to stay keeping fit to the surrounding living conditions the social patterns were to change and mind pattern was to evolve correspondingly.

4. Conclusion: Just because the mortality rate falling and child survival rate increases, even due to general well-being increase and female education reinforcing the fertility rate would not fall immediately. It would happen significantly later, it would not be that instant response. The relation is not that direct. It takes at least about one generation time. So the fertility rate decreasing would be strongly postponed

POLITICAL INTERPRETATION OF THE SCIENTIFIC CONCLUSION

However in the developing countries population had not enough time for social and mind patterns adaptation, that lead to the “Youth Bulge” forming. Professor Heinsohn, historian and economist at the University of Bremen in Germany argues that wars, insurrections, contemporary and historical terrorism, and internal violent insurrections are the result of a surplus of 15- to 29-year old men in the total population. That subjects is regarded closer by the master of history Si Frumkin in his article Prophetic Pyramid http://www.sifrumkin.com/pdf/pyramidSW.pdf In that article he predicts troubles to the European countries population due to indigenous peoples aging causing the in-flow of working forces from the alien cultures

That means that in case of just human aid providing the child mortality rate in the developing countries would fall much faster than the mind pattern gets changed or updated. The population would be still increasing instead of falling. For instance if a woman in developing countries 30 years ago got 6 babies and 3 of them – 50% - died while newborn babies, now she may have just 4 of them, but modern children mortality rate would ensure that at least 3 of them – or even all 4 of them – would get adult. That would just increase that “Youth Bubbe” that is considered one of the main reasons of the civil conflicts after the Cold War (ref The Security Demographic - Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War by Richard Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion in Population Action International August 1, 2003) http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/The_Security_Demographic/Summary.shtml

So increasing well-being alone, by just free gift from somewhere outside, that is not accompanied by the corresponding social and mind pattern correspondingly would rather make the situation worse. The same problem has been discussed by Gunnahr Heinsohn in the WallStreet Magazine, January the 12^th, 2009 Ending the West's Proxy War Against Israel. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123171179743471961.html

In this article he appeals the Western humanitarian agencies to stop funding a Palestinian youth bulge. He explains there that then the fighting will stop too.

So we can come to the following conclusion: folk tranitions-frienfly humanitarian goods providing and increasing child survival rate alone would not assist to prevent the overpopulation without lifestyle stressful changes. Rather otherwise, while insist on preserving “indigenous, unique” archaic social and mind patterns as well, that one of traditional community, it would make the situation significantly harder.

However the archaic mind pattern – or the mind pattern of the commune oriented traditional society member - is very hard to overcome with no efforts from the side of this process subdues and with no required assistance of the social evolution leaders. Due to many quite natural psychological reasons peoples are usually gasping the habitual traditions. (see the works of Professor in the Social Psychology area of the Department of Psychology at the University of Virginia. Jonathan Haidt http://people.virginia.edu/~jdh6n/publicity.html and the book “Social Animal” by Elliot Aranson

To solve the overpopulation problem is not possible without the archaic mind pattern or in other words - without the mind pattern of the traditional community members updating.

The Social evolution of H. Sapiens is very complicated problem.  As the results of social development    affect the genetic biochemical mechanism, so in vice versa, the biochemistry affects the evolution direction. Recently  in scientific biological magazines occurred several works on that subject

Some hints on which way is to be followed could be found with the help of statistical data analysis too. The analysis is to follow the natural sciences approach too http://olgasorokina.org/txt_StudyingSocialEvolution.htm

That means it would not be possible without transit of several separate civilization fragments with the traditional community pattern to this global population with updated mind pattern.

The system which is more adjusted to constant changes have developed on the West. It was moved by economical motives first of all. However currently that development  made the West falling into the  hardest sort of autocracy , the  Market Autocracy. That led to economical crisis. Currently many talks occurs on how to fix Capitalism by many prominent capitalism leaders, for instance Bill Gates or George Soros.  So apparently the system is still keeping certain potential to mutations

However it’s easier to say that than to do. The unavoidable necessity of that transit rises in fact more questions than one may fancy. The current work gives no straight instant answers – after all it is just impossible within the scope of such miltifactoral complex problem. It just suggest the strategy way to fallow. That way would not be that easy to follow. The main challenge here is to sustain sustainability wile staying able to changes. But how it could be achieved?

The population of MEDCs experiences the extreme level of the any single person selfish wish meeting and unlimited will individualization in the– due to the very nature of the commercial success. Any of that features strongly contradict the social evolution process flowing. This Market Autocracy – on in other words it is just following the boundless invisible hand of the Market of Adam Smith,- may be one of the most powerful reason causing the reverse of Flynn effect in the MEDC . The Flinn effect is the substantial increase in average scores on intelligence tests all over the World. It was measured in the 1949, 1974 and 1991. However the consequent investigations in some MED countries showed unexpected reverse of this effect. So in the United Kingdom, tests carried out in 1980 and again in 2008 show that the IQ score of an average 14-year-old dropped by more than two points over the period. However, children aged between five and 10 saw their IQs increase by up to half a point a year over the three decades. Professor James Flynn, the author of the latest study, believes the abnormal drop in British teenage IQ could be due to youth culture having "stagnated" or even dumped down.

Teasdale and Owen (2005) "report intelligence test results from over 500,000 young Danish men, tested between 1959 and 2004, showing that performance peaked in the late 1990s, and has since declined moderately to pre-1991 levels".

Teasdale and Owen (2007), in a study on young adult males in Denmark, found that there was a modest increase between 1988 and 1998, but a modest decrease between 1998 and 2003/2004. The difference was approximately 1.5 IQ points in both cases.

That relative decrease of the mind control over free will results in flourishing of asocial behavior among the young population of MED countries

We assume that reverse of the Flynn Effect occurred due the same Market Autocracy effect. The market offers and social politics of modern states remove the negative limit for random allocation of human Intellectual ability. Simultaneously the market excess offer together with marketing technologies progress strongly decrease peoples Searching Activity. If Searching Activity is not required to ensure normal living in course of long time it either decreases or focuses on non-material matters of higly private, individual understanding. That affects the selection of goals for cognitive activity applying and turns that activity to mainly spiritual subjective field – in case it would occur at all. That may be the reason of the Flynn effect reverse and superstitions flourishing, even le revanche de Dieu in modern times in the MEDCs.

The reverse of the Flynn effect means that the mind control over people wishes gets decreasing. Peoples get more governed by advertising and medias, but simultaneously peoples behavior gets more asocial.

Unfortunately these effects are badly intermixed with ritual understanding of religions. The current globalization conditions lead to the ”crisis of sovereign states” and thus non-state peoples self-identification gets more influence. The most evident parameter peoples of various social development levels to use for self-identification is ritual part of religion. The correlation between that common understanding of the religions and social animal ethology is regarded in more details here http://olgasorokina.org/txt-ethology.htm

The science-technical evolution in the Western World –moved by economical reasons first of all – promoted  those moderns changes in the world, which are also called Globalisation. That made the “sovereign states” paradigma out-of-date.  By now it were impossible to revive it due to that total incorporation of the developed states’ economics.  

EVOLURTONARY APPROACH TO THE CRISIS NATURE

Since to information exchange got significantly increased due to communication means development, human evolution passed to new evolutionary level, linked to the reinforcing of human cognitive activity and its results implementation. This new evolutionary level exchanges the rules the evolution is realizing. However the principle of natural selection is to be kept at this new level – just by new methods.

Analysis above proves the increasing role of social structures in the development of this activity together with its contradiction to autocratic social structures, and Hive psychology mind pattern.

The crisis that started in the 2008 as the exclusively the USA economical crisis, spread all over the World economy. It got spreading on as the political crisis in many countries. In the 2011 it resulted in many authocratic states crashing. Previously they were completely cut off the social development mainstream. That also caused serious military aggression increase. We assume that it also proves the evolutionary nature of the current crisis. So to cure the crisis and to insure further sustainable development of Global civilization new cognitive methods of the Hive psychology overcoming are to be used. In more details it’s regarded here http://olgasorokina.org/txt_Modern_crisis_nature.htm

CONCLUSION - for science-based international politics.

In order to keep its sustainability the social pattern is to stay both able to change while keeping internal equilibrium. That is fundamental requirement any system, especially the biological one, is to meet. That requirement was taken into account by Karl Popper while working out his model of Open Society. However till now it stays just epistemiological model nobody knows how to realize. It seems that social-economical system of a state is to provide to citizens as opportunities, so motives for personal mind development. Together with it the system is to offer attractive ways for results of such a development realization. If otherwise, in case of no ways to that new power realization the results of education may be rather unexpected, like in case of Kenian Females education regarded in the work of a group of American scholars from the International Group of Economical Researches “Education as liberation?”. In that work the researchers were assess the social and political impacts of a randomized girls’ merit scholarship incentive program in Kenya. Quite unexpectedly the researchers found that this experiment results were rather contradicting the popular modernization theory . Counter to modernization theory, increased human capital decreased the parents and authorities influence on females way, however did not produce more pro-democratic or secular attitudes If anything, it strengthened ethnic identification, (see http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/kremer/files/GSP-tracking-politics_2011-04-04-CLEAN.pdf)

The changes in psychological pattern of the young women were deep and great, but the researches were rather surprised when they found that neither social activism of that program participants increased, neither their acceptance of political violence decreased in its turn. Simultaneously their interest toward current political events and addiction to democracy pattern of social organization increased together..

All the said above may us supposing that without real welcome changes in the current state political and social system, women just have no real exit to their increased abilities and ambitions. There are many examples that show that social violence acceptance in those situation increase. In fact all that badly increase the social instability in the certain state.

However Kenya does not affect international affairs as much as it go the MEDCs. Those countries have another problem – since the Market society policy is to meet any individual demand, together with the defense reaction from the increased Urbanisation it leads to extreme individualization of the peoples

As extreme behavior individualization, so extreme behavior subordination, the one that is required for real eusociality – both ways are blind for further development. Both of those extremes block the natural-science-related Searching activity. The latter seems the only way to exceed the Limits of Growth

The realizing of this problem alone would not help to solve that transit conflict. I may just hope that its realizing would facilitate working out the deliberate sensible steps to overcome it and to overcome the difference in the social development of the coutries previously separated from the evolutionary mainstream. I assume here that the real way to solve that problem is not just humanitarian goods providing. In fact that would result in the consequent Youth Bubbles bulging and both violence increase and biocoenosis non renewable resources overexploiting.

It would rather required the deliberate assistance in social pattern updating. This upgrade would need the sensible and deliberate efforts of the social evolution leaders, first of all - well-balanced and free of day-by-day interests efforts of the USA. Unfortunately most of these efforts would be not traditions-friendly…

It is important to rake into account that youth bulge may result in rapid economic growth, but just in case the social pattern is exchanging correspondingly like it was in many South East Countries (see Age structural transition and economic growth: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia by K. Navaneetham (Centre for Development Studies) http://ideas.repec.org/p/ind/cdswpp/337.html

In that Article he emphasizes, that demographic transition has given the South Asian countries an opportunity for economic development. However, the realization of that opportunity depends on whether socio-economic policies are favorable to economic growth. Simultaneously that is the only way to facilitate the bioceonosis carrying capacity enlarging as well. That way would fight the fatalist-determinism scenario.

. That would not be possible with the new understanding of the social engineering concept. That subject is regarded in those two essays http://olgasorokina.org/txt_the%20increasing%20role%20of%20natural-sceinces-based%20social%20engineering%20in%20the%20changed%20World.htm

http://olgasorokina.org/txt_HumanSocietyEvolutionTends.htm

Increased violence level all over the world is a sight of intraspecific struggle increasing. It also means that transfer intensification.

The resistance to that evolutionary transit would come from many reasons – as from all these powerful mass psychology factors from above so to the deliberate opposition of peoples benefiting from it. Peoples benefiting from this situation are as at the top social level of the developing countries, so in the MEDC Humanitarian Aid structure - see the article “Ending the West's Proxy War Against Israel” in the Wall Street Journal from 12 Jan 2009 in which the author Gunnar Heinson proves that the activity of many Western Humanitarian Aid Agencies just feed up the Palestinian “Youth bulge”. And he proves that it just warms up that conflict. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123171179743471961.html

All those factors makes that transit from the traditional society level to the updated one realization almost unreal. Just there seems to be no other way to decrease the overpopulation problem. For many scholars, for example, Lynn and Harvey have argued that during the last century there is a negative correlation between intelligence and number of children.

The asocial peoples behavior flourishing made some Western philosophers even regretting on the commune-oriented traditional community and looking for some exit in coming back to its values. However all the discussion above proves that it would be hardly possible, - if not just disastrous - in modern conditions.

So despite all these problems there seems be no other way to solve the global biocoenosis carrying capacity enlarging problem.

And that conclusion increases the role of natural sciences-based social engineering from the current leaders of social evolution.

http://olgasorokina.org/txt_the%20increasing%20role%20of%20natural-sceinces-based%20social%20engineering%20in%20the%20changed%20World.htm

That is to be the transit from selfish private state or corporation interests to the evolutionary goal, that development goal that was described by Daniel Pipes in its article Why non-Americans are to support the USA goal. http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2011/01/why-a-non-american-should-promote-american. This assumption would be true as long as the USA are still keeping that goal, ie as long as the state interests are not inverted by realpolitics interests .

The most important conclusion from the above is that currently the Earth bioceonosis keeping sustainability depends on the deliberate actions of the evolution leaders.

In order to keep the biocenosis sustainability these actions working out is to take into account the general rules of the evolution of biocenosis. That would also mean the PostModernism paradigma breaking. The Postmodernism paradigma says that financial success determines the real value of any innovation. It occurred as a result of severest condition changes of the 20^th century - as sociopsychological, so technical. That paradigma determined the politics in course of the Modern-Postmodern times. Those times had run out. New Paradigma is to come up on the basis of natural sciences –ie on the ground of the experimental results of theory realizing,

The Previous time of that social evolution transition was at the edge between 19^th and 20^th century. Last time it caused two world wars, series of revolution all over the World, the Great Depression. Economic and demography changes that followed two World Wars and a series of cruel social revolutions resulted in public disappointment in human reason power. That disappointment was one of the reasons of the Postmodern ideology arising in the second half of the 20^th century. This ideology embraces various lines, from social organization to arts. All these lines may be characterized by one common feature – postmodern philosophers and artists state that the only true sense of the World may be found through emotional understanding. , postmodernism philosophers say since reason is helpless to achieve any absolute sense it is not possible at all. Hence there are neither objectivity nor reality, everything depends on personal interpretation.

The latter in its turn depends on the attitude of the interpreter, so only subjective understanding may be achieved.

The main criteria of the interpreter’ success is its production’ commercial success

The Postmodern philosophy gave burst to many changes in any aspects life all over the World. All these changes made the civilization history running much faster. Currently the most developed areas are facing the urge of the passing to the new evolutionary stage, just like it had already happened in course of so called Neolithic revolution.

However, due to the imbalanced levels of the civilization development over the World, the level that various national cultures achieved by now differs a lot too. The changes in the international leading states are very fast. Other state-cultures are not able to stay up these changes, so the civilization imbalance is just increasing. That seriously threatens the sustainability of the civilization development. That makes almost impossible working out some general World development strategy. Currently the living conditions in the word are changing that fast, that in order to survive the social psychology can’ help to changing correspondingly. However these psychological changes requirecertain yime period and the authorities’ relevant response.

The liberate relevant response to the ongoing changes may be not worked out without understanding their nature. Here it is assumed that in order to get that understanding these changes are to be regarded within the Big History context or even without the World-System analysis. There could be no constant solution, it’s a process of constant adjusting to constant conditions’ changes, those both fromoutside and inside.

That would require transdiciplinary approach, analyzing works of researchers in so different fields, as history, macroeconomy, evolutionary biology, ecology, demography, modern warfare, sociopsychology, culturology and anthropology

Such complex analysis would require return to certain share of reason and objectiveness of modernism at new level of recognition. In fact that would mean the end of the Postmodernism paradigma.

That seems to be unavoidable in order to keep the balance

References to some materials used for the anilysis. Besides them the general informational context of Russian and Western medias was taken into account

S Kapiza Global population blow-up and after. Report to the Club of Rome http://www.clubofrome.at/archive/rep-kap.html

S.Kapiza Phenomenological theory of world population growth
UFN 166 63 (1996)
http://www.kapitza.ras.ru/arhiv/people/kapitza/Welcome.html

S. Grebelny – 2008, Cloning in Nature.
A part playing by Gene recombination stoppage in fauna and Flora formation
Russian Academy of Sciences, Zoological institute, Saint-Petersburg, 2008
ISBN 978-5-98092-022-7

Evolution in Four Dimensions
Genetic, Epigenetic, Behavioral, and Symbolic Variation in the History of Life
Eva Jablonka and Marion J. Lamb ISBN-10:
0-262-10107-6
ISBN-13:
978-0-262-10107-3 http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/item/default.asp?ttype=2&tid=10470

Soft inheritance: Challenging the Modern Synthesis
Eva Jablonka1 and Marion J. Lamb2
1The Cohn Institute for the History and Philosophy of Science and Ideas, Tel-Aviv University,
Tel-Aviv, Israel.
211 Fernwood, Clarence Road, London, United Kingdom

Genetics and Molecular Biology, 31, 2, 389-395 (2008)

Copyright © 2008, Sociedade Brasileira de Genética. Printed in Brazil

http://www.123people.se/ext/frm?ti=personensuche%20telefonbuch&search_term=eva%20jablonka&search_country=SE&st=suche%20nach%20personen&target_url=http%3A%2F%2Flrd.yahooapis.com%2F_ylc%3DX3oDMTVnOGlja21vBF9TAzIwMjMxNTI3MDIEYXBwaWQDc1k3Wlo2clYzNEhSZm5ZdGVmcmkzRUx4VG5makpERG5QOWVKV1NGSkJHcTJ1V1dFa0xVdm5IYnNBeUNyVkd5Y2REVElUX2tlBGNsaWVudANib3NzBHNlcnZpY2UDQk9TUwRzbGsDdGl0bGUEc3JjcHZpZANWZHFEZ21LSWNycHN2aHFud053YjlEODhXODV4Q0UzMlg0QUFEeElF%2FSIG%3D11i6g9o9j%2F**http%253A%2F%2Fwww.somosbacteriasyvirus.com%2Fsoft1.pdf&section=email&wrt_id=554

Works of the American demographer Si Frumkin http://www.sifrumkin.com/public.htm

The Studies of European demography situation of Joshua R Goldstein, Max Plank Institute of Demography, Laboratory of Economic and Social demography

Presentations on the population growth problems, sociological and economical changes in the modern World, and on the Struggle with poverty of prof Hans Rosling at TED Conferences of the years 2006-2010

http://www.ted.com/search?q=Hans+Rosling

Works on the 21^st economy of the prof William Halal, the Futurist foundation http://www.noblis.org/NewsPublications/Pages/WilliamHalal.aspx

Peter Turchin, Connecticut Institution http://www.eeb.uconn.edu/people/turchin/

Of the professor of economics of the Brown University Oded Galor http://www.econ.brown.edu/fac/Oded_Galor/

Works on morality, religion, politics and emotions of the professor of social psychology of the University of Virginia Jonathan Haidt http://people.virginia.edu/~jdh6n/

Publications and Presentations of Richard Dawkins http://www.sifrumkin.com/public.htm

Sociobiology: The New Synthesis by E. O. Wilson, 1975

Works of the a Nobel Prize winning Austrian zoologist, ethologist, and ornithologist. Konrad Lorez, especially his 1973 book, Civilized Man's Eight Deadly Sins

Diaries of Vladimer Vernadsky and those of Akop Nazaretyan – all in Russian

Le Phenomenon humain Teihard de Shardain en russe

Vision 2020 Nature 463, 26-32 (7 January 2010) | doi:10.1038/463026a; Published online 6 January 2010 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v463/n7277/full/463026a.html

Biological theory. Post-modern evolution? Published online 17 September 2008 | Nature 455, 281-284 (2008) | doi:10.1038/455281a http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080917/full/455281a.html

Elliot Aranson American psychologist. He is listed among the 100 most eminent psychologists of the 20th Century, and influential social psychology textbook Social animal

Elliot Aranson Age of Propaganda

National Bureau of Economical researches

Willa Friedman

University of California, Berkeley

Michael Kremer

Harvard University and NBER

Edward Miguel

University of California, Berkeley and NBER

Rebecca Thornton

University of Michigan

NBER Working Paper No. 16939
Issued in April 2011
NBER Program(s):   ED   POL http://www.nber.org/papers/w16939

International media fuss around Climategate and Wikileaks publications,

the “Arab spring” events of the 2010 and the process of the 2012^th running in the Russian urban society.

David Kilcullen is one of the world's most influential experts on counterinsurgency and modern warfare. A Senior Counterinsurgency Advisor to General David Petraeus in Iraq

In the Small War Journal he published the articles on the New Strategy for the 21 Conflicts and the essay The New Paradigm for the 21st century. http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/06/new-paradigms-for-21st-century/

http://www.nature.com/news/2008/080917/full/455281a.html The Accidental Guerrilla. Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One David Kilcullen

ISBN13: 9780195368345ISBN10: 0195368347 Hardback, 384 pages

Feb 2009, 

Max Boot, Heritage Foundation, Council on Foreign RelationsProject for a New Chinese century,

http://www.cfr.org/china/project-new-chinese-century/p8945

Paula Cerni, the 21^st century imperialism http://theoryandscience.icaap.org/content/vol8.1/cerni.html

Many studies on the Baldwin effects, analyzed by Alexander Markov in his book Human Evolution, V2, Apes Neurons and Soul Эволюция Человека, т2, Обезьяны, нейроны и душа, М.: Аситрель: CORPUS, 2011, 512 стр ISBN 976-5-271-3294